Illinois vs. Mizzery

Illini Game Preview
Tonight – 8:30 tip
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Why Bruce Weber Should Read the New Yorker

While Georgia’s upset victory over the Illini Saturday was not David over Goliath, it was improbable. Georgia was 4-4 going into Saturday with losses to Wofford, UAB, and St. John's. They were picked to finish last in a mediocre SEC. And, they took a 34 point a$$ whupping courtesy of the Illini only a year ago. So how exactly does Georgia beat Illinois? Ask Malcolm Gladwell. The popular Economist who wrote Blink, The Tipping Point, and Outliers also wrote an amazing article for the New Yorker on this very topic.

The gist of the article: if you are the underdog, don’t play straight up. Do something different, surprise your opponent. Gladwell cites research from political Scientist Ivan Arreguín-Toft in making his point. Toft analyzed every war fought in the last 200 years and found that the superior army won 71.5% of the time. Digging deeper, Toft looked at conflicts where one side was at least ten times more powerful than the other and found that when the underdog used an unconventional strategy, its winning percentage jumped to 63.6%. If Georgia had played the Illini straight up, they would have lost by 15 points. Instead, Georgia switched from press to zone to man and didn’t let the Illini get into a rhythm. David beat Goliath.

From here on out, Illinois will be assuming the role of David. We must acknowledge our weaknesses and use unorthodox strategies to compensate. Our rebounding and post defense is soft, so we should double and triple the post, put opposing big men in foul trouble, and bring in subs to hack, push, and punish the other team’s center. Our team defense is also struggling, so why not use the press that was so effective at the end of the Georgia game and against Clemson. Let’s change it up just like Georgia and keep the Big10 guessing.

Coach Weber or IGP readers, if you are interested in reading more about Gladwell’s theories about the underdog (and the full court press), check out the article online (http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/05/11/090511fa_fact_gladwell). It’s a bit long but well worth the read.

Mizzery

If the Illini had any trouble getting up for Saturday’s game against Georgia, there won’t be a lack of adrenaline during tonight's match-up versus bitter rival Missouri Tigers. Illinois is going for their 10th straight win in the series. Mizzery’s best player is 6’6” swingman Kim English. English scores 16.1ppg and trained over the summer with former Illini point guard Chester Frazier who is also from Maryland. Fortunately, Mizzery’s front line is almost as frail as the Illini. Take a peek at this story about string bean freshmen John Underwood - http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2009/12/22/missouri-mens-basketball-forward-gains-weight-compete/. Underwood is 6’9” and weighs 190lbs. I could replace his name with Tisdale’s and no one would know the difference.

Missouri likes to press so it won’t be good enough to just beat the press, we have to score off the press and make them pay for being over aggressive. Look for our freshmen guards to feed off the intensity of the evening and light up St. Louis. DJ and Brandon, I want 30pts and 5 steals between the two of you.

Illinois – 76
Missouri – 68


Sincerely,
Loyola-Maryland