Illini Game Preview
Tonight – 8:30 tip
Meet me at Rebel!
Why Bruce Weber Should Read the New Yorker
While Georgia’s upset victory over the Illini Saturday was not David over Goliath, it was improbable. Georgia was 4-4 going into Saturday with losses to Wofford, UAB, and St. John's. They were picked to finish last in a mediocre SEC. And, they took a 34 point a$$ whupping courtesy of the Illini only a year ago. So how exactly does Georgia beat Illinois? Ask Malcolm Gladwell. The popular Economist who wrote Blink, The Tipping Point, and Outliers also wrote an amazing article for the New Yorker on this very topic.
The gist of the article: if you are the underdog, don’t play straight up. Do something different, surprise your opponent. Gladwell cites research from political Scientist Ivan Arreguín-Toft in making his point. Toft analyzed every war fought in the last 200 years and found that the superior army won 71.5% of the time. Digging deeper, Toft looked at conflicts where one side was at least ten times more powerful than the other and found that when the underdog used an unconventional strategy, its winning percentage jumped to 63.6%. If Georgia had played the Illini straight up, they would have lost by 15 points. Instead, Georgia switched from press to zone to man and didn’t let the Illini get into a rhythm. David beat Goliath.
From here on out, Illinois will be assuming the role of David. We must acknowledge our weaknesses and use unorthodox strategies to compensate. Our rebounding and post defense is soft, so we should double and triple the post, put opposing big men in foul trouble, and bring in subs to hack, push, and punish the other team’s center. Our team defense is also struggling, so why not use the press that was so effective at the end of the Georgia game and against Clemson. Let’s change it up just like Georgia and keep the Big10 guessing.
Coach Weber or IGP readers, if you are interested in reading more about Gladwell’s theories about the underdog (and the full court press), check out the article online (http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/05/11/090511fa_fact_gladwell). It’s a bit long but well worth the read.
Mizzery
If the Illini had any trouble getting up for Saturday’s game against Georgia, there won’t be a lack of adrenaline during tonight's match-up versus bitter rival Missouri Tigers. Illinois is going for their 10th straight win in the series. Mizzery’s best player is 6’6” swingman Kim English. English scores 16.1ppg and trained over the summer with former Illini point guard Chester Frazier who is also from Maryland. Fortunately, Mizzery’s front line is almost as frail as the Illini. Take a peek at this story about string bean freshmen John Underwood - http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2009/12/22/missouri-mens-basketball-forward-gains-weight-compete/. Underwood is 6’9” and weighs 190lbs. I could replace his name with Tisdale’s and no one would know the difference.
Missouri likes to press so it won’t be good enough to just beat the press, we have to score off the press and make them pay for being over aggressive. Look for our freshmen guards to feed off the intensity of the evening and light up St. Louis. DJ and Brandon, I want 30pts and 5 steals between the two of you.
Illinois – 76
Missouri – 68
Sincerely,
Loyola-Maryland
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Illinois vs. The Comodore 64s
Illini Game Preview
Tonight - 7:30 tip
We're headed to the Schoolyard. Shoot me an email, or leave a comment below if you're going to make it.
What an amazing comeback last week against Clemson. Down 23 points in the first half, Illinois made a furious comeback to win in the final minute of the Big10-ACC match-up. Our young team showed tremendous heart, and it ranks right up there with the Arizona Elite 8 game, last year’s Northwestern comeback, and a similar early season 20 point comeback against Seton Hall in 2000.
I love the heart emanating from this year’s team, but I’m a little concerned about the defense. During Bruce Weber’s reign as head coach, Illini teams have gained a reputation for hard-nosed, man-to-man defense. This season, our defensive statistics are pretty poor…especially when considering the level of competition.
Opposing teams are scoring a lot of points against us, they’re shooting pretty well, and we aren’t getting nearly as many steals as we should with all our guards. I see 3 areas where teams are taking advantage of the Illini.
1. Post Defense: Our big men aren’t the thickest trees in the forest, and sometimes it shows in our post defense. Junior Forward Mike Davis tends to put both hands straight in the air - making him tall…but not very wide. Davis needs to get low and wide and utilize the ‘arm bar’. NBA guards in the 80’s and 90’s utilized the hand check to slow down and steer their man in the direction they wanted. The arm bar is a similar technique where a big man will put his forearm and hip into the side of the offensive player. See Dennis Rodman for the arm-bar and textbook post defense.
2. On the Ball Defense: Opposing teams are getting to the rim way to easy. Boise State had 16 layups on Saturday. We have a lot of young players who are not used to the speed of D1 hoops.
3. Defense Against the Pick & Roll. Our big men are taught to hedge against screens and recover to their man. When we use a heavy hedge, it leaves our team vulnerable against ball reversals. We have to improve our defensive rotations after the roll. Team defense.
Coach Weber saw the same things against Clemson and switched to zone in the 2nd half to keep Clemson on their toes. Surprising? Yes. Especially when you consider that Assistant Coach Jay Price could only think of 2.5 possessions in the last seven years that the Illini played zone. In the NFL, defenses switch their looks and formations each play to confuse the offense. I’d love to see Illinois use a few different zones sporadically as a change of pace.
My second adjustment? Press. In two of the four comebacks mentioned earlier (Arizona and Northwestern), Illinois utilized a tight press to make up a ton of ground. Even in last year’s disappointing tournament loss to Western Kentucky, we were down 17 with five minutes, but utilized full court pressure to get within 4 at the final buzzer. We’ve got the guards and the speed, so lets throw it out there for 3-4 minutes a game.
Vanderbilt
Illinois topped the Commodores 69-63 in last year’s contest, but Vandy returns all starters in 2009. Watch the match-up between Vandy’s 6’11’ Center AJ Ogilvy and Illini big man Mike Tisdale. Ogilvy is scoring 14ppg and pulling down 7 boards a contest.
Illini Guard Demetri McCamey came up big last year with 23 points on five 3-pointers. Interesting Fact: Clemson went on a 23-4 run after McCamey picked up his 3rd foul last Wednesday. McCamey, like another brilliant former guard named Frank Williams, gets unfairly blamed for too many of Illinois’ basketball problems. McCamey is our best player, he played amazing on Saturday, and I expect him to continue to be the engine that makes this team run.
Illinois – 81
Commodore 64s – 75
Sincerely,
Devan Cunningham
Tonight - 7:30 tip
We're headed to the Schoolyard. Shoot me an email, or leave a comment below if you're going to make it.
What an amazing comeback last week against Clemson. Down 23 points in the first half, Illinois made a furious comeback to win in the final minute of the Big10-ACC match-up. Our young team showed tremendous heart, and it ranks right up there with the Arizona Elite 8 game, last year’s Northwestern comeback, and a similar early season 20 point comeback against Seton Hall in 2000.
I love the heart emanating from this year’s team, but I’m a little concerned about the defense. During Bruce Weber’s reign as head coach, Illini teams have gained a reputation for hard-nosed, man-to-man defense. This season, our defensive statistics are pretty poor…especially when considering the level of competition.
Opposing teams are scoring a lot of points against us, they’re shooting pretty well, and we aren’t getting nearly as many steals as we should with all our guards. I see 3 areas where teams are taking advantage of the Illini.
1. Post Defense: Our big men aren’t the thickest trees in the forest, and sometimes it shows in our post defense. Junior Forward Mike Davis tends to put both hands straight in the air - making him tall…but not very wide. Davis needs to get low and wide and utilize the ‘arm bar’. NBA guards in the 80’s and 90’s utilized the hand check to slow down and steer their man in the direction they wanted. The arm bar is a similar technique where a big man will put his forearm and hip into the side of the offensive player. See Dennis Rodman for the arm-bar and textbook post defense.
2. On the Ball Defense: Opposing teams are getting to the rim way to easy. Boise State had 16 layups on Saturday. We have a lot of young players who are not used to the speed of D1 hoops.
3. Defense Against the Pick & Roll. Our big men are taught to hedge against screens and recover to their man. When we use a heavy hedge, it leaves our team vulnerable against ball reversals. We have to improve our defensive rotations after the roll. Team defense.
Coach Weber saw the same things against Clemson and switched to zone in the 2nd half to keep Clemson on their toes. Surprising? Yes. Especially when you consider that Assistant Coach Jay Price could only think of 2.5 possessions in the last seven years that the Illini played zone. In the NFL, defenses switch their looks and formations each play to confuse the offense. I’d love to see Illinois use a few different zones sporadically as a change of pace.
My second adjustment? Press. In two of the four comebacks mentioned earlier (Arizona and Northwestern), Illinois utilized a tight press to make up a ton of ground. Even in last year’s disappointing tournament loss to Western Kentucky, we were down 17 with five minutes, but utilized full court pressure to get within 4 at the final buzzer. We’ve got the guards and the speed, so lets throw it out there for 3-4 minutes a game.
Vanderbilt
Illinois topped the Commodores 69-63 in last year’s contest, but Vandy returns all starters in 2009. Watch the match-up between Vandy’s 6’11’ Center AJ Ogilvy and Illini big man Mike Tisdale. Ogilvy is scoring 14ppg and pulling down 7 boards a contest.
Illini Guard Demetri McCamey came up big last year with 23 points on five 3-pointers. Interesting Fact: Clemson went on a 23-4 run after McCamey picked up his 3rd foul last Wednesday. McCamey, like another brilliant former guard named Frank Williams, gets unfairly blamed for too many of Illinois’ basketball problems. McCamey is our best player, he played amazing on Saturday, and I expect him to continue to be the engine that makes this team run.
Illinois – 81
Commodore 64s – 75
Sincerely,
Devan Cunningham
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